This past January, the once-powerful rating agency, Moody’s, downgraded the long-term credit ratings of four of the “Big five” Canadian banks. The downgrades, which were attributed to the economic risks posed by the high level of consumer debt and hot housing market in Canada, were largely ignored by the debt and equity markets. Click to Download»
Insights: Subsector
For MICs, Time to Exercise Caution?
We were recently asked to look at and give our opinion on mortgage investment corporations, or MICs. Given the ultra-low interest rate environment, high yielding MICs have become a popular product among retail investors. What we found behind these high yield products was concerning to us, particularly given the potential for a generalist investor to significantly underestimate the actual credit risk of certain MICs.
Case Study: Citizens Republic (U.S. Mid-Cap Bank)
Below is our case study, Citizens Republic – A Recovering Mid-Cap Bank. The subject of this case study, which was originally written for and distributed to our clients in mid-July of 2011, is an example of a bank recovering from the most recent credit cycle. Click to Download»
100 Bank Mergers
We explain why we believe M&A within the U.S. banking sector will be one of the most significant and compelling investing opportunities in the financial services sector over the next three years, and why we expect over 100 mergers among the publicly traded banks during this time. Click to Download»
Recovery in Earnings Comes in Advance of Stock Prices
The U.S. banks recently reported another excellent quarter of earnings, with the recovery in earnings continuing to substantially outpace the recovery in bank stock prices. Although lower than Q1-12’s earnings of $28 bln (owing primarily to a $2.3 bln Q/Q decline in trading), Q2 earnings for the publicly traded banks were still a very meaningful $26 bln. This exceeds earnings levels achieved by the banks before…
Some Thoughts on JPMorgan’s Trading Loss
As no doubt everyone has read or heard, in early May, JPMorgan (JPM) announced a surprise trading loss of “slightly more than $2 bln”, incurred while trying to hedge European sovereign debt exposures. The media attention garnered by this loss has been relentless. The negative coverage is very atypical for this highly successful bank that buttressed its reputation by admirably managing through the credit crisis.
FDIC Data Demonstrates the Divorce Between Stock Performance and Earnings in 2011
As we discussed in our December Thesis Update, 2011 was a terrible year for the banks from a market perspective, as the sector both declined and underperformed the S&P (which was flat) by 25%. From an absolute return perspective, it was the 6th worst year since 1937 (Source: Barclays). From a relative perspective (i.e., versus the S&P 500), it was the 5th worst in 75 years.…
Will Banks Rise in 2012? History Strongly Suggests Yes
2011 was a year the U.S. banks would like to forget. Stocks declined 24.6%, underperforming the S&P 500 by the same amount (SPX ended the year unchanged). This was the fifth worst result since 1937 (i.e., the first year of available return data). It also marked the 7th year out of the last 8 in which the banks underperformed (and it would have been 8 of…
Will Sun Life Financial (SLF-TO) Cut its Dividend?
There is something very unusual going on in the Canadian financial services sector: a large-cap financial, Sun Life Financial (SLF), is being priced for a substantial dividend cut. Even those with a cursory knowledge of Canadian financial services know that investors in the sector consider dividends virtually sacrosanct.
That Was Then, This is Now: Comparing the European Debt Crisis to the Credit Crisis (Globe and Mail)
Europe’s current sovereign debt crisis bears many similarities to the recent U.S. Credit Crisis. Both crises involve(d) two roughly $14 trillion dollar economies weakened under the weight of too much leverage, particularly within the financial system. Both have seen central bankers provide unprecedented monetary accommodation as they struggle for ways to support economic growth. What’s more, bank stocks have acted in both cases as a daily…
Sector Continues to Grow Earnings Rapidly
The banks reported a very solid second quarter during the month, even if this fact was obscured by the price action or press coverage. Core earnings for the sector grew 14% Q/Q, and 50% Y/Y. Credit continued to improve, with charge-offs declining 12% Q/Q and 41% Y/Y.
Jamie Dimon on the U.S. Banking Environment
Last week, Jamie Dimon, the famously blunt CEO of JPMorgan Chase attended the Sanford Bernstein Strategic Directions conference in New York. The format was a one hour Q&A session. Given the negative sentiment around U.S. banks, we thought it useful to highlight comments from arguably the country’s most important and influential banker.