The Canadian banks had a very tough 2022 falling 8.9% – just the 5th decline in the last 20 years, which includes financial crisis years of 2007 and 2008[1] (the sector even rose 3.8% in 2020, despite COVID). The main reason for the decline last year was falling price-to-earnings multiples caused by the market’s concern that global central banks could cause a recession by aggressively raising…
Insights: Banks
U.S. Financials: Mid-Caps Look Attractive, Despite Clouds (4 Reasons to Invest)
The U.S. mid-cap financials held up very well in 2022, in what was a very difficult year for the global financials. Risks that had not been seen for decades – like inflation – have returned, and the market’s fears that rising central bank rates could trigger a recession remain high. This has resulted in significant compression in price-to-earnings multiples as the market anticipates clouds ahead. Yet,…
HBA – Top Performing Financials ETF in Canada (and 5 Reasons to Invest)
In 2022, our blue-chip Hamilton Australian Banks Equal Weight Index ETF (HBA) outperformed its 38 competitor financials ETFs, by rising ~1%, making it the top performing financials ETF in Canada – foreign or domestic[1]. This is the second year in a row that Hamilton ETFs had the top performing financials ETF in Canada[2]. In fact, HBA – which has a yield of 5.8% – was the…
HUM – Top Performing U.S. Financials ETF – Again
Our Hamilton U.S. Small/Mid-Cap Financials ETF (HUM, HUM.U) was the top performing U.S. financials ETF in Canada – again[1]. HUM has now outperformed its competitor ETFs over the following periods: since inception[2], in the last two years, full year 2021, and full year 2022. In 2021, it was the top performing financials ETF in Canada – foreign or domestic[3]. In the last two years – which…
HFG – Top Performing Global Financials ETF in Canada
Our Hamilton Global Financials ETF (HFG) was the top performing ETF in its category in 2022 and outperformed its domestic competitors and the iShares Global Financials ETF (IXG) over the last two years. During that period, HFG generated a total return of 17.5%, beating every competitor ETF by at least 2.8%[1]. Importantly, not only did HFG outperform its competitor global financials ETFs and the index in…
Canadian Banks: Three Things to Watch in Q4
Even with the strong November, Canadian bank stocks are down ~15% peak-to-trough, reflecting the market’s concern of a possible global recession caused by central banks aggressively raising interest rates with the goal of taming inflation. At the same time, central bankers are also engaging in the relatively new policy of quantitative tightening (the effect of which cannot be quantified). The decline in Canadian bank share prices…
Canadian Banks: Should Investors be (More) Worried? (fQ3 in Charts)
As the market has priced in a higher risk of a recession, Canadian bank stocks have declined ~20% in just 5 months, including a ~10% decline since the sector started reporting Q3 results in late August. The market is worried that central banks will cause a recession as they aggressively raise interest rates to tame inflation. Further complicating their job is that central banks are simultaneously…
Canadian Banks: TD Buys FHN – A Very Strong Fit
After much speculation in recent years about its appetite for additional U.S. bank M&A, TD offered ~US$13.4 bln in cash to buy First Horizon Corporation (FHN)[1], a Tennessee-based regional bank, in late February, almost 15 years since its last “large” U.S. bank acquisition – Commerce Bancorp. In our view, the acquisition offers many strategic benefits given FHN: (i) is an optimal size, adding material scale with…
Canadian Banks: 2022 starts with M&A; Recovery Continues (fQ1 in Charts)
2022 is off to a noteworthy start for the Canadian banks, with long-awaited M&A announcements and another strong earnings season. In December, we posted our outlook for the year, “Canadian Banks: Five Possible Drivers in 2022”, in which we stated that the cyclical recovery was not yet over. We identified five factors that we expected would influence bank share prices during 2022: (i) reserve releases, (ii)…
Canadian Banks: BMO’s High Risk, High(er) Reward Acquisition of BoW
Bank of Montreal recently announced the acquisition of BNP Paribas’ U.S. retail banking subsidiary, Bank of the West (BoW) for ~C$20 bln – the largest acquisition in Canadian banking history. The transaction is very different from prior acquisitions made by the Canadian banks and is further complicated by the fact that BoW is not publicly traded (wholly owned by BNP), so most Canadian investors have limited…
HCAL/HCA Lead All Canadian Bank ETFs in 2021
During 2021, the Hamilton Enhanced Canadian Bank ETF (HCAL) and the Hamilton Canadian Bank Mean Reversion Index ETF (HCA) outperformed all other Canadian bank ETFs, rising 51.5% and 40.3%, respectively. Entering last year, we forecast the Canadian banks would have a very strong year (see our insight “Q4-2020 Takeaways – Recovery Has Started” and our video “Three Potential Catalysts for 2021”[1]). HCAL outperformed all strategies by…
Canadian Banks: Five Possible Drivers in 2022 (Q4 2021 in Charts)
HCAL Ends Year #1 as the Top Performing Canadian Bank ETF; Hamilton ETF AUM Exceeds $1 bln Before we discuss our outlook for 2022, we wanted to highlight that the Hamilton Enhanced Canadian Bank ETF (HCAL), the top performing bank ETF since its launch in October 2020. Year-to-date (2021), HCAL is outperforming equal weight/yield weighted strategies by 9% and covered call strategies by 14-17%. As of November…