As we have written in prior Insights, Wells Fargo (“WFC”) – like its other mega-cap peers – continues to struggle to generate earnings growth. The mega-caps also struggle with regulatory risk; before the recent U.S. election, we cautioned that the risk that regulators were shifting their focus from the capital markets banks to the largest regionals appeared to be rising. WFC was a prime example, coping…
Hamilton ETFs
Another Sector-Leading Quarter for HBG’s U.S. Banks
November 16, 2016 In the Hamilton Capital Global Bank ETF (HBG;TSX), we expect U.S. banks, over time, to represent between 35% and 50% of the fund. With expectations for a higher U.S. Fed Funds rate in the coming year, our bias is to be closer to the upper band of this range, at the expense of exposure to the Canadian banks. Within the U.S., we favour…
U.S. Banks: C, JPM, BAC, and WFC Continue Multi-Year Trend of Close to Zero EPS Growth
As we have indicated in prior commentary, we have zero exposure to the U.S. mega-cap banks, primarily because of their very low EPS growth, mid-single digit ROEs (in the case of C and BAC), and very high regulatory risk (see “Five Reasons We Don’t Own C, JPM and BAC”, June 14th). We favour a portfolio of U.S. banks derived from the nearly 200 publicly traded U.S.…
Canadian Banks: Revisiting our “End of an Era” Thesis (Five Years Later)
In May 2011, we wrote an essay entitled “The Canadian Banks – The End of an Era”. In this essay – which was excerpted in the Globe and Mail – we explained why the Canadian banks were entering a period in which their two-decade period of double digit EPS/dividend growth was ending. Specifically, we identified three reasons supporting this thesis: (i) the drivers of the sector’s…
In Person: Canadian Banks – A Conversation on International Expansion
Today, we hosted a fireside chat with three of the Big-6 Canadian bank CEOs at Toronto’s Fairmont Royal York Hotel. The conversation centered around the banks’ international platforms, discussing everything from their differing capital deployment strategies to their outlooks for their foreign platforms over the next decade.
Canadian Banks: Housing Correction Concerns Increasing Regulatory Risk
As we have highlighted in numerous Hamilton Capital Insights, regulatory risk is a key risk in global banking, and one we attempt to minimize our exposure. It is most intense for the mega-banks in the U.S. and Europe, particularly those with global investment banking operations (i.e., C, BAC, JPM, CSGN.VX, UBS.VX, DBK.GY, BARC.LN). Although post-crisis, those global banks have been the epicentre of regulatory risk, the recent…
Is Wells Fargo Un-investable (for Now)?
As we have written in the past, we strongly favour U.S. mid-cap banks – i.e., those with assets under $100 bln. These 200+ banks are growing (much) faster than their large-cap peers, are generally more rate sensitive, and are merging. And crucially, they have less regulatory risk. Up until recently, the epicentre of regulatory risk among the mega-caps has been banks with global investment banking operations…
Hamilton Capital Announces HBG September 2016 Distribution
TORONTO, Sept. 21, 2016 /CNW/ – Hamilton Capital Partners Inc. (“Hamilton Capital“) is pleased to announce a distribution for the Hamilton Capital Global Bank ETF (ticker “HBG“), which trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange, for the period ended September 30, 2016. The ex-dividend date for the distribution is anticipated to be September 28, 2016, for all unitholders of record on September 30, 2016. The distribution will be paid in cash, or if…
Wells Fargo/Deutsche Bank: Some Thoughts on Regulatory/Litigation Risk
Recent events impacting Deutsche Bank (DBK.GY) and Wells Fargo (WFC) underscore – yet again – that the mega-cap banks, particularly those with (1) global investment banks and/or (2) operating in the U.S., continue to face significant regulatory/litigation risk, irrespective of quality. In general, these two categories of banks, which overlap, are not growing very fast (in some instances shrinking), have mid-single digit ROEs, and/or continue to…
Notes from Florida Bank Tour: Commercial Real Estate Lending and M&A under the Microscope
We recently traveled to Florida to meet with a group of mid-cap banks. Of the 12 banks that participated on the trip, 9 are headquartered in Florida (2 Arkansas, 1 from New Jersey), and 10 are publicly-traded[1]. Of the publicly-traded banks, the median asset size is US$5.0 billion, the median market cap is US$841 million (US$1.5 billion average), and the median expected loan growth in 2016…
Canadian Banks: More Risky vs. Less Risky Loans in One Chart
At present, the Canadian banks have outstanding asset quality. Although provisions rose notably for the second consecutive quarter in Q2, provision and gross impaired loan ratios remain below long-term averages. With Q3 reporting beginning August 23rd, we believe the market will be focused on two areas of potential deterioration: (i) energy loans (which have been driving higher loan losses), and (ii) Alberta consumer, particularly uninsured.
On HBG, Post-Brexit Rebound Portfolio Changes: Increasing Cash by Reducing South America; U.S.
As previously disclosed, the Hamilton Capital Global Bank ETF (HBG) entered the Brexit referendum vote on June 23rd with ~12% cash and materially underweight U.K. banks (see our July 6th HBG Manager Comment). This provided an opportunity to strategically deploy cash/add positions after the “Leave” side declared victory and global bank stocks declined sharply. In the two trading days following the Brexit vote, the global banks…